UEFA Cup campaign | 2008-2009

[deporiginal]

Originally Posted by deporik

Yeah I agree.

We should go looking for a win but if we end up drawing, it might not be so bad either.

To be honest, I'd really want to see us win that. If we do, we can play Nancy with the knowledge we're already through. With a bit of luck, even a draw against Nancy could bring us the second spot. And I would really prefer the second spot tbh. If I look at the CL dropouts, there are teams like Anorthosis, Shakhtar,... Not easy of course, but certainly a hell of a lot easier than teams like Milan etc.

[ggeorg]

Originally Posted by deporik

Yeah I agree.

We should go looking for a win but if we end up drawing, it might not be so bad either.

we will definitely go looking for a win

[Shelvin]

Win win win!

[Leon]

Perfect results, of course, last night.

Feyenoord are already eleminated so two out of three (Nancy, Deportivo, Lech) will join CSKA in the next round.

We can already finish the job next week in Poland by winning. Drawing would be fine too, because it will take Deportivo to 4 points and Lech to 2 points which means the Polish team will have to win in Rotterdam against the pride of Feyenoord while Deportivo must lose at home against Nancy (if I'm right that if both teams end up at 5 points, goaldifference is in Depor's advantage).

Losing in Poland won't be a disaster. Moscow can still get a draw or win in Nancy and then we can finish off the French team ourselves. Besides, a win against Nancy would take us to 6 points which means that Lech stil need to win in Rotterdam.

[deporiginal]

Originally Posted by Leon

Perfect results, of course, last night.

Feyenoord are already eleminated so two out of three (Nancy, Deportivo, Lech) will join CSKA in the next round.

We can already finish the job next week in Poland by winning. Drawing would be fine too, because it will take Deportivo to 4 points and Lech to 2 points which means the Polish team will have to win in Rotterdam against the pride of Feyenoord while Deportivo must lose at home against Nancy (if I'm right that if both teams end up at 5 points, goaldifference is in Depor's advantage).

Losing in Poland won't be a disaster. Moscow can still get a draw or win in Nancy and then we can finish off the French team ourselves. Besides, a win against Nancy would take us to 6 points which means that Lech stil need to win in Rotterdam.

Losing in Poland will be a disaster lol. It certainly wouldn't be good for our reputation. If we play concentrated from the start, we should be able to claim the win. I'm just afraid that our players won't be that motivated. Here's hoping for a 0-1. After that game, it's two weeks before we play the final game of the group stage. I really don't want to be stressing for another two weeks

[ggeorg]

I agree that losing in Poland will be a disaster! I except Nancy to beat the unmotivated CSKA, so they will be in 7 points and we will be in 3, meaning there is no chance to catch them.
In the final game we will qualify only by winning Nancy and Lech Poznan not winning Feyenoord.
While at the moment i think we're in the next round by 85-90% if we lose at Poznan this will be a 50-50 situation.

[deporiginal]

Originally Posted by ggeorg

I agree that losing in Poland will be a disaster! I except Nancy to beat the unmotivated Feyenoord, so they will be in 7 points and we will be in 3, meaning there is no chance to catch them.
In the final game we will qualify only by winning Nancy and Lech Poznan not winning Feyenoord.
While at the moment i think we're in the next round by 85-90% if we lose at Poznan this will be a 50-50 situation.

Nancy already played Feyenoord, or did you mean CSKA?

It's Lech - Depor and Nancy - CSKA next week. The thing is, if CSKA loses, then Nancy is only two points behind them, so in theory Nancy could still surpass CSKA in the standings. CSKA's season in Russia is also over, so this game is the only thing left they still have to play for this season. That's why I'm thinking Nancy won't win that game. And for us, it doesn't matter at all if that game's a draw or a CSKA win. As long as Nancy doesn't win it, I'm happy.

Last game is Feyenoord - Lech and Depor Nancy. Feyenoord may have been weak, but that game they have nothing to win or lose, so maybe they'll put up a better game. Lech wasn't bad against CSKA but it's not like they're a super team either. I still don't believe Lech will get the 3 points from Rotterdam but who knows.

[ggeorg]

Originally Posted by deporiginal

Nancy already played Feyenoord, or did you mean CSKA?

what Feyenoord?

Originally Posted by deporiginal

The thing is, if CSKA loses, then Nancy is only two points behind them, so in theory Nancy could still surpass CSKA in the standings. CSKA's season in Russia is also over, so this game is the only thing left they still have to play for this season. That's why I'm thinking Nancy won't win that game. And for us, it doesn't matter at all if that game's a draw or a CSKA win. As long as Nancy doesn't win it, I'm happy.

I quite disagree in this. A team already qualified is relaxed. Rarely happens in European football, a team to get motivated by the fact of earning a better place, so maybe a better draw. That isn't enough.
But on the other hand, a team with such quality as CSKA, playing a game with no anxiety, could win this by 0-4, no doubt about that...

There are several scenarios, but the point is not losing at Poznan, so as we could decide for our own luck

[deporiginal]

Originally Posted by ggeorg

what Feyenoord?




I quite disagree in this. A team already qualified is relaxed. Rarely happens in European football, a team to get motivated by the fact of earning a better place, so maybe a better draw. That isn't enough.
But on the other hand, a team with such quality as CSKA, playing a game with no anxiety, could win this by 0-4, no doubt about that...

There are several scenarios, but the point is not losing at Poznan, so as we could decide for our own luck

CSKA wasn't at all impressive at Feyenoord (who deserved better that game imo), and they weren't great against Lech either. Nancy qualifies by winning, but still CSKA is one of those teams that always punishes the opponent for every small mistake. CSKA should be motivated enough to get at least a point in Nancy. Finishing first and finishing second in Uefa Cup is a huge difference.

[Leon]

There are several scenarios, but the point is not losing at Poznan, so as we could decide for our own luck

Exactly, everybody prefers that. But defeats happen. My point remains, and still stands, that losing in Poland isn't a disaster. You give us a 50% chance of qualification if we lose and that's also still a lot.

I would call something a disaster if our options are diminished to 10%. With so many options open after a loss in Poland, that won't be 10%.

Of course this is a about a worst-case-scenario, but Depor in away matches has been difficult this year while some north/eastbound countries (Norway, Germany, Russia) don't favour Depor.

[Michał]

I decided to make some analysis.

Matchday 4 possiblities:

1.
Lech - Depor 2
Nancy - CSKA 1

2. Nancy 7
3. Depor 6
4. Lech 1

2.
Lech - Depor X
Nancy - CSKA 1

2. Nancy 7
3. Depor 4
4. Lech 2

3.
Lech - Depor 1
Nancy - CSKA 1

2. Nancy 7
3. Lech 4
4. Depor 3

4.
Lech - Depor 1
Nancy - CSKA X

2. Nancy 5
3. Lech 4
4. Depor 3

5.
Lech - Depor 1
Nancy - CSKA 2

2. Nancy 4
2. Lech 4
4. Depor 3

6.
Lech - Depor 2
Nancy - CSKA X

2. Depor 6
3. Nancy 5
4. Lech 1

7.
Lech - Depor 2
Nancy - CSKA 2

2. Depor 6
3. Nancy 4
4. Lech 1

8.
Lech - Depor X
Nancy - CSKA X

2. Nancy 5
3. Depor 4
4. Lech 2

9.
Lech - Depor X
Nancy - CSKA 2

2. Nancy 4
2. Depor 4
4. Lech 2

These are all possibilities for matchday 4. Only possibilites 1,6,7 (= the ones including our victory in Poznań) will put us in next stage with one match remaining.

If we draw we will be 2 points above Lech what should mean our advance aswell. Lech play the final match in Rotterdam where Feyenoord will try to end their European adventure with a honour. Our draw next week simply obligates Lech to win in Rotterdam and believe in our bad game against Nancy at home. If only we manage to draw against Nancy too Lech will have to have better goal difference. So far we have better one, but if we only draw two times (what means GD = 0) and they win in Rotterdam they'll have at least GD = 0 or even better and remember that e.g. 4:4 is better than 3:3. Our defeat at Riazor and Lech's victory in the Netherlands will be the end for us.

Considering worse case scenario - defeat next week we will be in serious problems. Of course unless Nancy don't beat CSKA we will still have everything in our hands, but I believe 'match for advance' at Riazor is not what we want. If we lose next week and Nancy wins they're out of the race and everything will decided between us and Lech. If we win and they don't we're through.

To be honest it is just analysis, I don't believe we can throw out that advance now, I just wanted to show you (us) all the possibilities

[istike]

Good job, Michal!

However to be honest I am convinced that we can beat Poznan, as we have much stronger team and our current run can be a booster for us. The "UEFA players" like Colotto, Valeron, Cristian, Tomas, etc. want to impress Lotina so I think the lack of motivation won't be a problem...

[Shelvin]

Yup i think we can easliy beat them!

[ggeorg]

We have a nomination here, for the most optimistic post

[deporiginal]

Feyenoord may want to go out with honor, but take in mind they'll SURELY play with their B-team. I just noticed they play PSV, AZ and another strong team in the same month. Seeing how crappy Feyenoord is, a motivated Lech could certainly take the points from Rotterdam. I give Lech a 30% chance to win there, and well that's still pretty much.

I stand by my opinion, our group is one of the easiest (if not THE easiest) of the Uefa Cup, we just got screwed by the calendar. There's also a possibility Nancy wins against CSKA at home. So if we lose in Poznan, that really would be a disaster. And I'd be incredibly ashamed if we lost against Lech. No offense to Lech, but seriously, an important game for Depor against a team like this should always be a win. The only asset of Poznan is their motivation. A smart team should be able to cope with that without too many problems. A win against them means we're through, and also means we'll probably finish second.

Come on, I know Depor isn't what it used to be. But a single win against a team like Lech equals mathematical qualification. I don't even want to think about drawing it, let alone losing it.


PS: I read the minute-by-minute thread and saw someone asked what counts in case of tied points. First they look at goal average, if that's also tied they look at goals scored, and if that's also tied they look at goals scored away. In other words, in case of a tie with Poznan, we're pretty much screwed. Our goal average now is 0, their's is -1. If Depor draws at Lech, it remains the same. If Depor then draws again against Nancy, our goal average is still 0. While a win of Lech at Feyenoord would mean their's will also be at least 0, and then they'll probably have more goals scored than we do.

A loss at Poznan isn't a disaster. It COULD be a disaster. But it certainly would be a shameful disgrace.