Squad news

TENSION FOR THE LAST MATCHDAY

18 May 2011
For the first time in 80 years of history, six Primera clubs will be trying to avoid relegation during the last matchday in liga. Depor secures the permanence with a win, any other result will mean to wait for the help from other clubs.

All the excitement in la liga is now reserved to the fight for the permanence; the results on last Sunday defined the 3rd and the 4th spots, plus the clubs that will play the UEFA Europa League competition. Now, with only one matchday remaining in the schedule, the only things to be decided are the exact positions of the three clubs in the Europa League and mainly the name of the club that will join Almeria UD and Hércules CF on its journey to Segunda División.

The big losers on the weekend were RCD Mallorca and Real Sociedad, sides that lost their away games and that still involved in the fight to avoid relegation, while the big winners were Malaga CF, Sporting Gijón, Racing Santander and Levante UD, clubs that have finally achieved the permanence. However, there are six clubs that still menaced by the shadow of Segunda: RCD Mallorca, Real Sociedad, Osasuna, Getafe, Deportivo and Real Sociedad.

The current situation at the standings:

Spot

Club

points

13

RCD Mallorca

44

14

Real Sociedad

44

15

Osasuna

44

16

Getafe CF

43

17

Deportivo

43

18

Zaragoza

42

These six clubs are separated by just two points, and therefore it is an interesting, and at the same time dramatic, picture ahead of matchday 38, a fact without precedents in the history of Primera. Since there’s a direct confrontation on the last matchday: Real Sociedad Vs. Getafe, then all the teams depend on themselves, because Real Zaragoza, club that’s currently occupying the 18th spot, will be saved with only a victory as it would surpass any of these two teams.

In the end there are 243 possible combinations among the seven matches that will determine the permanence:
CA Osasuna Vs.  Villarreal CF; Real Sociedad  Vs. Getafe CF; RCD Espanyol Vs. Sevilla FC; Levante UD Vs. Real Zaragoza; Deportivo Vs. Valencia CF, Real Racing Club Vs. Athletic Club & RCD Mallorca -  Atlético de Madrid.

In a single mathematical analysis, Deportivo has a relegation chance of 27.16%, this since 66 of the 243 possible combinations will leave the Galicians occupying the 18th spot. Meanwhile, the relegation probabilities of other rivals are: Osasuna (2.47%), Mallorca (2.47%), Zaragoza (48.16%), Real Sociedad (3.29%) and Getafe (16.36%).

Osasuna, Zaragoza and Deportivo are facing teams that no longer play for anything (Villarreal, Levante and Valencia), while RCD Mallorca is hosting Atlético Madrid, club that still can end 5th or 6th, which would mean to avoid the pre-round in the UEFA Europa League.

For Deportivo the safest road to the permanence will be a victory against Valencia, any other result will mean to be at mercy of other results. A defeat against the Valencians would be almost definitive, in that sense the only way to survive would be if Real Zaragoza loses at the Ciutat de Valencia against Levante.

A draw at the Riazor will open all kind of possible scenarios, more specifically 81 possible combinations, and the good thing is that in only 16 of those combinations Depor would end relegated, which means that the relegation chances will be of 15%. There are three main keys to achieve the permanence with a draw: to see Zaragoza losing at Levante, to see Getafe losing at Real Sociedad, or to see Mallorca losing against Atlético Madrid.

ARCHIVE NEWS MAY/11

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