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World Football For other football that's not related to Depor. For example: the Primera División, Segunda División A, Segunda División B, the Champions League, EURO 2008, the World Cup 2010, Italy, England, Germany, Turkey etc.

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Old 26-08-2007, 00:00   #1
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Default Liga 07/08 Adjusted +/- Stats (and soccermetrics discussion)

I began doing adjusted plus minus stats for Depor last year, a topic which was met with little enthusiasm on the board. I'm not complaining, in fact, I know this measure is still very rough, and would like to improve it. So to hopefully get a better idea of what needs to be addressed to make this stat more useful, I'm going to do the entire Division 1. The stat is going to be done by me anyway, so I've decided I might as well share it with the small handful of interested people on the forum.

I would also like suggestions to improve it, if anyone thinks of anything. Before we get started, though, a few caveats:

-This stat is not an overall rating for a player, i.e. it is not necessarily accurate to say Player X is 1.43 and therefore must be better than Player Y, a 1.10. A player's rating can be helped or hurt by who he plays with and the level of his substitutes. The hope is that an entire season of play can alleviate this problem somewhat, although it is in no way guaranteed that this will happen.

-Next, this stat only uses data directly correlated to wins and losses. At the moment, goals are the only data that can do this. So unless someone can demonstrate that things such as possession or shot attempts directly correlate to victory, I will not be incorporating them. unfortunately, the number of teams that play counterattacking styles may make this forever an impossibility.

Problems that I realistically hope to work on this year:

-Red cards are very difficult to process. Once a player has been dismissed, his +/- is unchanged since no goal has been allowed while he played. His team is at a disadvantage, though, and if they give up goals in his absence it will reflect poorly on them and kindly on him. So whose fault is it? A dismissal may be the team's fault - a forward might waltz through the defense and be fouled by the keeper - or it might not. The time of the dismissal may matter too - a red card in the 5th minute is devastating, but a professional foul in the 88th minute might be a smart play. Matches with multiple red cards can also be difficult to analyze since later cards may be a result of a weakened side after the first dismissal. This really bothers me, and any serious insights about the statistical effects of dismissals would be really appreciated and I think would help a lot.

-Goalkeepers. Since they generally play nearly all a team's minutes, their ratings become nothing more than the team's +/- for the year. I thought my Depor stats last year were too hard on Aouate, and would like to work on this. What do people think would be a good way to start in analyzing keepers? Perhaps goals per opponent shots (save percentage), although that feels a bit crude. A good stat for this could be compared to a keeper's +/- to see how much they correlate. I'd like to come up with a way to clarify this and any help would be great.

I'd like to take this space to thank anyone who made it all the way through this post. In doing the entire division, I'm also hoping that we can pick out some overlooked players on other teams and find some hidden gems no one's discovered yet. I'm also interested in seeing how players on the best and worst teams are treated, and comparing players' statistical impacts to the impressions they leave on the fans.

I'll be updating this post at least once a week all season with a summary of the entire division and individual teams (including Deportivo). All feedback is appreciated.
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Old 26-08-2007, 18:51   #2
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I know a few people have read this, so I'd like to ask a question to any interested forum members.

How much of an effect do forwards have on a team's defensive effectiveness? Conversely, how much do defenders affect a team's offensive potential?

Defenders do not usually directly participate in attacks, but they can do things like provide security at the back so more players can attack. They also occasionally score and can start attacks with intelligent passing. Forwards can also track back or keep the ball a long time so defenders have less work to do. So how much of this is part of the value of a defender or a forward? 5%?
10%?
25%?
Just people's impressions from watching games would be helpful. I want a place to start from so I can start to think about total value of players.
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Old 26-08-2007, 22:10   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cos
How much of an effect do forwards have on a team's defensive effectiveness? Conversely, how much do defenders affect a team's offensive potential?


This a very important point. But, just like others that mentioned , it is difficult -for me - to model this into data and more important to that : data that is supposed to give conclusions after analysis.

Don't take this as a "stop this !! there is no reason of doing it" I'm just trying to understand the way you're trying to develop it
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Old 26-08-2007, 23:33   #4
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Thanks, Heidern. The start of the season has me motivated, so I've been thinking about these problems a lot. I'll post more later.
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:27   #5
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I've been with an inconsistent internet connection for the last week, so I've neglected this post some. I've been working on the stats, though. Although it's a bit crude, I've decided to break up the +/- into offense and defense, and weight attacking players more towards offense, defenders more toward the latter, and midfielders equally between the two. I'm still not sure how I'm going to isolate GKs from their teams' defensive records, but I'm thinking about it. Any ideas would be great; even if they're simple, they may give me something to work from.
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:30   #6
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September 4 Week 2
Almeria
Rating Name
-2 David Cobeno
6.66 Santiago Acasiete
-1 Carlos Garcia Badias
-1 Gutierrez Robles Juanito
-1 Bruno
1.15 Miguel Angel Corona
1.09 Albert Crusat
1 Jose Manuel Jimenez Ortiz
5.34 Juan Manuel Ortiz
9.77 Fernando Soriano
3.62 Alvaro Negredo Sanchez
0.88 Kalu Uche
1.95 De Carvalho Felipe Melo
-3.27 Jose Ortiz
-4 Julio dos Santos

Last edited by cos : 04-09-2007 at 23:32.
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:31   #7
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Athletic Bilbao
Rating Name
-3 Gorka Iraizoz
4.66 Aitor Ocio
-2.33 Fernando Amorebieta
-2.47 Koikili Del Campo
4.66 Unai Exposito
-1 Moreno David Lopez
-1 Javier Martinez
-1.42 Martinez Tiko
0.33 Aritz Aduriz
-0.43 Exteberria
-0.48 Llorente
1.47 David Cuellar
2.12 Ion Velez
2.69 Inaki Munoz
-4 Igor Gabilondo
-2.22 Nestor Susaeta
-4.66 Andoni Iraola
-4.66 Aldekoaotalora Ustariz
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:33   #8
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Atletico Madrid
Rating Name
-3 Leo Franco
-2.16 Pablo Ibanez
-2.16 Luis Perea
-1.33 Mariano Pernia
-4.18 Giourkas Seitardis
-1.33 Raul Garcia
-0.5 Maniche
0.33 Maxi Rodriguez
2.74 Simao
1.16 Kun Aguero
1.16 Forlan
1.50 Reyes
0.51 Sanz Luis Garcia
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:34   #9
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Barcelona
Rating Name
-1.00 Valdes
0.33 Abidal
-0.33 Oleguer
0.67 Thuram
0.36 Zambrotta
-2.69 Iniesta
0.38 Yaya Toure
1.00 Xavi
2.50 Ronaldinho
-4.67 Eto'o
2.76 Messi
2.00 Thierry Henry
2.05 Deco
0.68 Rafa Marquez
-1.18 Giovanni dos Santos
0.36 Gabriel Milito
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:35   #10
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Deportivo
Rating Name
-5.00 Aouate
-3.83 Coloccini
-0.33 Guardado
-3.83 Lopo
-2.67 Manuel Pablo
-2.67 Sergio Rodri
-3.97 De Guzman
-1.55 Sergio
-2.08 Cristian Hidalgo
-3.47 Adrian Lopez
-0.63 Riki
3.29 Angel Lafita
3.81 Joan Verdu
3.47 Sebastian Taborda
0.51 Juan Rodriguez
2.67 Antonio Barragan
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:35   #11
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Espanyol
Rating Name
-3.00 Kameni
-4.78 Francisco Chica Torres
-2.17 Daniel Jarque
-2.17 Marc Torrejon
-0.50 Moises Hurtado
-0.50 Valmiro Lopes Rocha
-0.55 Albert Riera
-1.38 Milan Smiljanic
-0.50 Pablo Javier Zabaleta
-4.05 Ferran Corominas
1.17 Luis Garcia
5.35 Jonatas Domingo
1.45 Angel Martinez Cervera
-1.25 Jonathan Soriano Casas
4.78 Clemente Rodriguez
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:36   #12
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FC Sevilla
Rating Name
-2.00 Andres Palop
-4.72 Dragutinovic
-0.33 Federico Fazio
-0.33 Andreas Hinkel
3.00 Seydou Keita
3.00 Enzo Maresca
3.00 Jesus Navas
-9.00 Antonio Puerta
6.33 Diego Capel
6.33 Luis Fabiano
-2.50 Kanoute
9.00 Sergio Paulo Barbosa Valente
7.50 Renato Dirnei
2.50 Kerzhakov
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:37   #13
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Getafe
Rating Name
-5.00 Abbondanzieri
-3.83 David Belenguer
5.95 David Cortes
-3.83 Daniel Diaz
-3.83 Lucas Licht
-1.50 Fabio Celestini
-3.00 Pablo
4.67 Ignacio Perez Santamaria
6.37 Francisco Souza
1.60 Kepa
-0.20 Uche
-4.51 Mario Cotelo
-11.51 Pedro Mario Alvarez Abrante
-11.25 Alberto Aguilar
3.00 Pablo Hernandez
3.00 Javi Casquero
1.55 Nacho Perez
2.48 Juan Albin
4.25 del Moral Manu
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:37   #14
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Levante
Rating Name
-3.00 Marco Storari
-2.50 David Castedo Escudero
-2.50 Bruno Cirillo
-3.33 Inaki Descarga
-5.00 Jose Serrano
-3.00 Gomez Juanma
-1.50 Riga Mustapha
-1.58 Savio
-1.73 Damiano Tomassi
-1.07 Emilio Viquiera
-0.67 Alexandre Geijo
-0.05 Felix Ettien
1.61 Javi Fuego
0.53 Albert Ze Meyong
5.00 Alvaro Maior de Aquino
3.00 Mathieu Berson
3.00 Juan Gomez Manuel Sanchez
0.67 Christian Rigano
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Old 04-09-2007, 23:38   #15
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Mallorca
Rating Name
-1.00 Moya
-0.17 Sergio Ballesteros
-0.17 Hector
-0.17 Fernando Navarro
1.50 Jonas Gutierrez
1.62 Ibagaza
1.50 Nunes
1.50 Guillermo Pereyra
0.01 Daniel Guiza
0.49 Tuni
3.67 Pierre Webo
-1.94 Juan Arango
-1.84 Angelos Basinos
-5.00 Fernando Varela
-1.51 Borja Valero
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